Finante-Banci
ING: Cresterea cursului la 5 lei/euro ar ajuta prea putin exporturile si ar putea slabi economia
O depreciere a leului cu circa 10% fata de euro, ceea ce ar insemna cresterea cursului la 5 lei/euro, nu ar ajuta foarte mult exporturile si ar putea conduce chiar la o contractie economica, spun analistii ING Bank Romania.
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Potrivit acestora, exista alti factori mult mai importanti care pot ajuta exporturile, respectiv cererea externa si forta de munca ieftina.
Analistii admit ca o depreciere permananta a leului cu circa 10% fata de nivelul actual ar putea aduce o crestere usoara a produsului intern brut (PIB).
Slabirea leului ar afecta insa puternic alte sectoare, iar cumuland toate aceste efecte, s-ar putea ajunge chiar la o eventuala scadere a PIB, scriu analistii ING.
Acestia nu exclud insa ca volatilitatea cursului si o depreciere a leului ar putea avea si un efect pozitiv, in sensul ca ar descuraja imprumuturile in valuta forte, care au afectat in ultimul timp puternic stabilitatea financiara a romanilor.
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